Egypt’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 5.3% by 2019, according to the World Bank (WB). This forecast is lower than the WB’s forecast in January 2017 that was estimated at 5.4%.
In its monthly Global Economic Prospects report for June, the bank estimated Egypt’s GDP would grow 3.9% in the fiscal year (FY) 2016/2017, in line with government expectations.
The bank sees the growth rate rising to 4.6% in FY 2017/2018 and 5.3% by the FY 2018/2019, returning to pre-2011 levels.
The WB noted that these rates are among the highest growth rates targeted among emerging economies under structural reforms adopted by the state. The report said that the average growth rate in the region will fall from 3.2% in 2016 to about 2.1% this year.
The report pointed out that Egypt has one of the highest inflation rate in the world, which exceeded 30% due to the liberalisation of the exchange rate of goods and high prices of food products. Countries such as Algeria and Iran are experiencing high inflation rates, but much lower than last year.
“The flotation of the Egyptian pound helped boost Egyptian exports, which became cheaper when the Egyptian pound depreciated,” the report read.
The decline in the growth rate in the region is due to the decline in the growth rate in Saudi Arabia, which is the largest economy in the Middle East, according to the report.
The report added that the first four months of the current year saw a decline in oil production as a result of the reduction of production to control prices and expected to record the price of a barrel of oil around $53 this year, rising next year to $56.